????
Estes tossed for ‘being cute’ Several Rockies chirped from the dugout about pitches that led to a walk of Gary Sheffield. Estes noticed Timmons looking into the dugout and gave him a big grin and a wave. Timmons strode toward the dugout. Estes said teammate Mark Sweeney told him Timmons asked, “Do you want to … Continue reading “:)”
Several Rockies chirped from the dugout about pitches that led to a walk of Gary Sheffield. Estes noticed Timmons looking into the dugout and gave him a big grin and a wave. Timmons strode toward the dugout. Estes said teammate Mark Sweeney told him Timmons asked, “Do you want to go?” Estes, saying he didn’t understand what Timmons was saying, cupped his ear.
Soon after, he was gone.
…
“I guess he was looking for some feedback. Maybe he was feeling bad about himself. Maybe he needed a wave.”
I’m half paying attention to the MLB draft, mostly for the always fun Dodgers picks because Lasorda is doing them and is unaware five people are listening, and for the random oddities like “Hey, I bet that’s Kim Ng reading out the Yankees picks.”
I love how the two Cubs picks I’ve caught are from Notre Dame and William and Mary College; nothing screams fluky stats like a baseball team in a cold weather enviorment. But it’s my policy not to care about draft picks till at least they’re a DiamondJaxx (unless I happen to be at Daytona Cubs game), so whatever.
I totally think that if the reasons for being on the DL were kept top secret and not subject to evaluation, the Cubs would’ve listed Joe Bo as “heck if we know but he sure does suck”.
While I’m at it, via DugoutDollars: Your LaTroy Hawkins incentives
Games (30, on pace for 88): $50k total for 60, $100 total for 65, $150 for 70
Games Finished (?): $50 for 20, $100 for 25, $200 for 30, $350 for 35, $500 for 40, $650 for 45, $850 for 50, $1050 for 55, $1300 for 60
You notice they specifically didn’t use saves. Games Finished is a tough stat to track down, especially when MLB.com is being overloaded, so maybe I’ll edit later.
Gary Scott sang for the 7th Inning Stretch today. I guess the black cat and the goat were both busy. Edit: As a make up, Steve and Chip did the mini-version of their “Don’t slide into first, you moron!” rant. Always nice of them.
Gary Scott sang for the 7th Inning Stretch today.
I guess the black cat and the goat were both busy.
Edit: As a make up, Steve and Chip did the mini-version of their “Don’t slide into first, you moron!” rant. Always nice of them.
Beginning June 14, you can read Rob Neyer’s column four times a week as part of ESPN Insider. You will find Rob’s insights at MLB Insider, as well as peppered throughout ESPN.com’s baseball coverage. Well, okay, now I just save some time and only check the site when Primer posts the link to Gammons’ new … Continue reading “esuckspn.com/mlb”
Beginning June 14, you can read Rob Neyer’s column four times a week as part of ESPN Insider. You will find Rob’s insights at MLB Insider, as well as peppered throughout ESPN.com’s baseball coverage.
Well, okay, now I just save some time and only check the site when Primer posts the link to Gammons’ new column. I’m already getting more baseball coverage with the premium site I do pay for.
I don’t want to be rude, but besides the musician/rumor dude, the free side now has this collection of a suckatitude
– Phil Rogers, who I avoid in my paper
– Jim Caple, who you can mad lib quite easily by now
– Buster Olney, who only makes me care in the “I can’t believe they’ll publish ANYTHING”
– Jayson Starks And His Wild World Of Trival Numbers
– Kurjian articles, which are only good for reading in his voice.
– and a host of others I don’t know or care about
Enthralling. And on a page that has fifty million sidebars.
Neal over on Page2 actually is the best baseball columns left standing on the domain. Who’d thunk it.
I used to subscribe to Jim Baker’s newsletter before he hit went Insider last season, and like many a baseball dude, Neyer was The One when I started reading all the stuff on-line, but when there’s so much stuff – if not as good, than sometimes better – out there for free on baseball, I’m not sure why I’d pay.
Wait just a second!
[Baseball Prospects/Welcome] Hi. My name is Jim Baker.
That explains that now, doesn’t it? I think this turn out well for ME and my sub to BaseballProspectus, so okay.
I don’t know why I’m so stuck on this, but I just spend 3 hours collecting data and adding it up, so I post here again. (All the Stolen Base stuff together: http://thecubsfan.com/misc/sb.htm. Link will change when I come up with a better name.)
I don’t know why I’m so stuck on this, but I just spend 3 hours collecting data and adding it up, so I post here again.
(All the Stolen Base stuff together: http://thecubsfan.com/misc/sb.htm. Link will change when I come up with a better name.)
One of the ongoing debates between myself and my friend Jim is “Why do you keep calling for Hit and Run and Steals in MVP?” Seriously, he had Ichiro on Tampa (don’t ask) and got 30 SB but 40 CS. My point (besides pointing out that CS number) is to drop the “75% success rate … Continue reading “the value of stealing”
One of the ongoing debates between myself and my friend Jim is “Why do you keep calling for Hit and Run and Steals in MVP?” Seriously, he had Ichiro on Tampa (don’t ask) and got 30 SB but 40 CS. My point (besides pointing out that CS number) is to drop the “75% success rate = break even” sabermetric line. Which works until he questions “Why 75%?”
It’s 75% because, well, because other people who’ve looked more into this than me say it is? I’m smart enough not say that out loud, but it’s what I’m thinking. It is a good question, I’ll give him that.
This came up in my mind this morning because I saw an article on the ChicagoTribune article hitting this topic in reference to wacky Ozzie and his wacky tactics. It’s the usual “introduce a sabermetric idea only because we’re having other people shoot it down” stuff, but it got me thinking about this again and wanting to come up with a better case for my reasoning.
What helps is BaseballProspectus ran an article a few weeks ago about run expectancy (in the context of “is there a good time ever to sacrifice and what are they?”), helpfully giving a chart of how much runs people scored in various people on base/outs combinations last year. The important numbers to me are
| None | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | |
| None | .531 | .919 | 1.177 | 1.380 |
| 1 out | .282 | .535 | .706 | 1.032 |
| 2 out | .109 | .237 | .341 | .384 |
| 3 out | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
From there, all it takes it is a simple probability formula…
Breakeven point (the runs expected if you had done nothing)
= the probability of succeeding * the runs expected if the steal is successful
+ the probability of failure [in other words: 1 – the probability of succeeding] * the runs expected if the steal fails.
and some high school algebra to solve by the probability of succeeding
probability = (break even run expected – failure run expected) / (success run expected – failure run expected)
Plugging in the numbers:
| 1st to 2nd | 2nd to 3rd | |
| None | .712 | .815 |
| 1 out | .714 | .647 |
| 2 out | .695 | .888 |
In the situation Jim usually steals in, the percentage is actually lower than 75%. Not by much, but enough to make a difference on strategies. I’m quite stunned stealing 3rd base with one out is the best option of all by far, but I’d guess all the man on third/one run strategies inflates the worth of getting a man there with one out. If that number isn’t a particular year variance, teams really ought to be thinking about stealing third more often.
(This doesn’t really affect MVP, since it exists in a different universe. And also, I really do love this post following the last one.)
Wireless! Back! Yay. Scott went to IWA-MS and enjoyed the show, while I watched Velocity and lost a bit of my mind. Who made the better decision? I think I’m doing Heat and even CMLL tonight, after this Cubs game wraps up. Dusty really has SERGIO on a short leash since Rusch got called up, … Continue reading “slammin’ Saturday night”
Wireless! Back! Yay.
Scott went to IWA-MS and enjoyed the show, while I watched Velocity and lost a bit of my mind. Who made the better decision?
I think I’m doing Heat and even CMLL tonight, after this Cubs game wraps up. Dusty really has SERGIO on a short leash since Rusch got called up, but I think he’s doing fine. If Kyle can string together a month of performances like today, he might be a tradeable quantity again – or at least get some decent cash when he leaves the team this season.
Hey Tanvir, did you hear you’re not getting Daniels vs Red now? If TNA doesn’t burn itself out quick by paying for Fox Sports Net time, they’re going to have a lot of people annoyed at them at this rate.
That’s the message I got on my phone around 3:30ish from Mike. It takes a lot for Mike to actually message someone, but a lot was what Shawn was serving up. If you think about this, this makes TWO! straight good starts for Estes with the Cubs a lot of suckiness previously 09/25 @ CIN … Continue reading “i love estes”
That’s the message I got on my phone around 3:30ish from Mike. It takes a lot for Mike to actually message someone, but a lot was what Shawn was serving up.
If you think about this, this makes TWO! straight good starts for Estes with the Cubs
a lot of suckiness previously
09/25 @ CIN – 9.0 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 0 BB – only 5 batters over the minimum
Today @ CHC – 2.2 IP, 7 H, 9 ER, 5 BB and a HBP
I don’t think he sees it that way. If Estes came in here and pitched good, I think we’d all have died. Mass suicide – there are few things worse than having a guy come to you, kill your team while he’s on it then go someplace else and kill your team in a whole new way. And there are few better than killing him.
This was a hard day to hit! No ball was going to make it out – Corey would’ve had a grand slam and Burntiz wouldn’t have had a face full of door – so you need someone who’s going to leave stuff hanging for line drives. Which is Shawn’s strong point!
The normal fourth and fifth guys on the Cubs rotation may make the All-Star team. What the heck. Was it that long ago when Jon Leiber was our only decent guy? Weird.
more blog to come?
On the pre-game show, Joe and Ron tried to make the case that it’s non-save apperances that are making his numbers look bad, because he’s not as pumped up. Personal problems aside, I wanted to check this to see if he’s right. Non Save Games 4 Games 4 IP 13.50 ERA (6/4*9) .518 OBP (10+4/27) … Continue reading “pitch to the score”
On the pre-game show, Joe and Ron tried to make the case that it’s non-save apperances that are making his numbers look bad, because he’s not as pumped up.
Personal problems aside, I wanted to check this to see if he’s right.
Non Save Games
4 Games
4 IP
13.50 ERA (6/4*9)
.518 OBP (10+4/27)
Save Games
6 Games
6 IP
1.50 ERA (1/6*9)
.308 OBP (3+5/26)
Hmmm. Need to check back to last season and see if it’s a trend.
Joe’s still in a bad mood re: the papers and their whole interview bit came off as defensive.
Prior’s return delayed. He may not pitch for Cubs till May. PEORIA, Ariz. — After being re-examined by a second physician Saturday, Mark Prior conceded the April 12-19 timetable for his return to action may be way too optimistic. There’s little reason to believe Prior could be ready before May 1, even if he restarts … Continue reading “sound the panic alarms”
Prior’s return delayed. He may not pitch for Cubs till May.
PEORIA, Ariz. — After being re-examined by a second physician Saturday, Mark Prior conceded the April 12-19 timetable for his return to action may be way too optimistic.
There’s little reason to believe Prior could be ready before May 1, even if he restarts his rehab process Sunday after a six-day layoff from throwing.
“It’s kind of one of those mystery things we’re going to have to deal with,” Prior said. “Hopefully, it’s not too long.”
I’m gonna go freak out now.
It’s all a conspiracy by the Trib – A month or more of SERGIO = lots more beer sales.