Break Even Stolen Base Success Rate
Run Expectancy Per Base and Out Situation, 2003
Outs | None | 1st | 2nd | 3rd |
0 | 0.531 | 0.919 | 1.177 | 1.380 |
1 | 0.282 | 0.535 | 0.706 | 1.032 |
2 | 0.109 | 0.237 | 0.341 | 0.384 |
3 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
REiNA = Run Expectancy If No Attempt
PoS = Probability of Succeeding
REiS = Run Expectancy if Successful
REiF = Run Expectancy if Failure
At what point do the runs gained from stealing a base equal the runs in hand from the current position?
Run Expectancy If No Attempt = Probability of Succeeding * Run Expectancy if Successful + (1 - Probably of Succeeding) * Run Expectancy if Failure
Solve for Probability of Succeeding
PoS = (REiNA - REiF) / (REiS - REiF)
Outs | 1st to 2nd | 2nd to 3rd | 3rd to Home | 1st to 2nd (man on 3rd*) |
0 | 71.17% | 81.51% | 87.91% | 89.65% |
1 | 71.36% | 64.68% | 78.69% | 81.78% |
2 | 69.50% | 88.80% | 34.63% | 95.75% |
* - man on 3rd holds base.
Which of the top SB guys exceeded these numbers? Which didn't Can not find historical info.
Not Accounted For:
Situations where a runner moves up multiple bases (bad throw) or is out trying
to stretch it to multiple bases
Double steals.
Somewhat related: Who adds the most runs to his team via good stolen bases? Who costs the most?
Outs | 1st to 2nd | 2nd to 3rd | 3rd to home |
0 | 0.258 | 0.203 | 0.151 |
1 | 0.171 | 0.326 | 0.250 |
2 | 0.104 | 0.043 | 0.725 |
Outs | 1st to 2nd | 2nd to 3rd | 3rd to home |
0 | -0.637 | -0.642 | -1.098 |
1 | -0.426 | -0.469 | -0.923 |
2 | -0.237 | -0.341 | -0.384 |
Players Stats? MLB gives double situational, so:
Name | Runs | SB | CS |
Podsednik | 3.834 | 20 | 0 |
Crawford | 2.332 | 21 | 6 |
D. Roberts | 2.199 | 12 | 1 |
Beltran | 1.435 | 8 | 0 |
Womack | 1.431 | 7 | 0 |
B. Roberts | 1.345 | 13 | 3 |
Figgins | 1.228 | 9 | 1 |
Lawton | 0.972 | 8 | 1 |
Sanders | 0.497 | 6 | 1 |
Rollins | 0.096 | 9 | 3 |
Pierre | -0.47 | 11 | 6 |
Sanchez | -2.703 | 9 | 9 |