Break Even Stolen Base Success Rate

Run Expectancy Per Base and Out Situation, 2003

Outs None 1st 2nd 3rd
0 0.531 0.919 1.177 1.380
1 0.282 0.535 0.706 1.032
2 0.109 0.237 0.341 0.384
3 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

REiNA = Run Expectancy If No Attempt 
PoS = Probability of Succeeding 
REiS = Run Expectancy if Successful 
REiF = Run Expectancy if Failure

At what point do the runs gained from stealing a base equal the runs in hand from the current position?

Run Expectancy If No Attempt = Probability of Succeeding * Run Expectancy if Successful + (1 - Probably of Succeeding) * Run Expectancy if Failure

Solve for Probability of Succeeding

PoS = (REiNA - REiF) / (REiS - REiF)

Outs 1st to 2nd 2nd to 3rd 3rd to Home 1st to 2nd
(man on 3rd*)
0 71.17% 81.51% 87.91% 89.65%
1 71.36% 64.68% 78.69% 81.78%
2 69.50% 88.80% 34.63% 95.75%

* - man on 3rd holds base.

Which of the top SB guys exceeded these numbers? Which didn't Can not find historical info.

Not Accounted For:
Situations where a runner moves up multiple bases (bad throw) or is out trying to stretch it to multiple bases
Double steals.


Somewhat related: Who adds the most runs to his team via good stolen bases? Who costs the most?

Run Expectancy Gain on SB, with no one else on
REiS - REiNA
Outs 1st to 2nd 2nd to 3rd 3rd to home
0 0.258 0.203 0.151
1 0.171 0.326 0.250
2 0.104 0.043 0.725
 
Run Expectancy Loss on CS, with no one else on
REiF - REiNA
Outs 1st to 2nd 2nd to 3rd 3rd to home
0 -0.637 -0.642 -1.098
1 -0.426 -0.469 -0.923
2 -0.237 -0.341 -0.384

Players Stats? MLB gives double situational, so:

Name Runs SB CS
Podsednik 3.834 20 0
Crawford 2.332 21 6
D. Roberts 2.199 12 1
Beltran 1.435 8 0
Womack 1.431 7 0
B. Roberts 1.345 13 3
Figgins 1.228 9 1
Lawton 0.972 8 1
Sanders 0.497 6 1
Rollins 0.096 9 3
Pierre -0.47 11 6
Sanchez -2.703 9 9