09/30 Arena Mexico (and other shows) preview

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Anniversario Preview

Yea, it’s a show.

People Who Aren’t Possibly Going To Lose

• Rush: duh
• Texano: also duh
• Terrible: none of these guys are losing a cage match for their first hair loss

People Who Would Be Jokes As Losers Because They Just Lost

• Mr. Aguila: nine months ago
• Máximo: six months ago!
• Negro Casas: eleven months ago

These three being in this match is sort of a lame bit an indy promotion would do. Was Avisman busy?

Possibilities, However Sad They May Be

• Blue Panther
• Rey Bucanero

Veterans of suitable level who would seem like a significant deal if they were shaved and who haven’t lost their hair in a while. Bucanero lost his hair last 4 years ago, Panther has never lost his hair. On the other hand, Panther has shown better sense at when to lose apuesta matches then to lose right now, and they may have other plans for Bucanero.

Dark Horse

• Hector Garza

Trade off (or bonus) for winning the heavyweight title? If they were really considering a Volador/Ultimo Guerrero/Atlantis/Hector Garza four way for this show, it means they have been probably considering Garza to lose. They’ve used Hector Garza losing his hair to set up bigger matches down the road, and this show is best used to build towards one that might actually matter.

Obvious, Maybe Too Obvious

• Felino

He’s been looking for a hair match since five minutes after he lost his mask and finally is getting in one. He’s significant enough for the loss to matter but is more comedy guy now so a loss won’t hurt him. The biggest reason why he might not lose here is because there’s a ready made feud for later in the year – TRT vs Peste Negra with everything on the line. However, CMLL didn’t seem to have a firm plan for this match until a month in advance (if even), so it wouldn’t seem like they’re actually mapping out the rest of the year at this point.

My pick is Felino. Rush winning here would get a reaction they do not want, so I’d pick one of TRT to win.

Attendance is bit less straightforward. They’re not going to sell out and I don’t think they’re going to reach the high water mark of the year (Mascara/Averno), though the tickets are actually less expensive than that show.

Dos Leyendas: 10,500 (tickets are 450 to 40, not including surcharges )
Juicio Final: 13,500 (800 to 100)
Anniversario: ??,??? (600 to 50)
(comparision: GDL tickets are 180 to 60 – which actually points more towards Malefico)

They should be able to draw 10,000 on the Anniversary show concept alone, but I’m not sure this show can. It’s a really unappetizing match with no strong build. I don’t know how much their TV is helping them right now, but you’d barely have an idea this match is going on if you watch the main Teleivisa/Galavision show and you’d barely know why. The last three weeks have been about the Universal Tournament, and the build wasn’t that strong or coherent prior to that. Last week’s show, with Atlantis vs Ultimo Guerrero in a hotter feud, just barely got over 10,000 with cheaper prices.

CMLL is going to do what they have to do make sure the building doesn’t look appalling empty for this show, but 8,000 paid seems about right for this level show.

In the other multiman matches

Leyenda de Azul Plata: Assuming there’s a reason Lyger is a tecnico – a dangerous assumption when it comes to NJPW wrestlers in CMLL this year – a match with Volador would appear to be it. Mascara Dorada is the only other guy with a shot, but I’m not sure who beats Lyger in this. Mephisto? Eh. Olimpico? Dragon Rojo? Virus? (Actually, yes, Virus beating Lyger would actually be awesome.)

Guadalajara: none of the mask guys are likely to lose. Okumura, Yoshihashi, Leo, Leono, Malefico, Toscano and Loco Max are the unmasked seven. It’d be cheap to have Yoshihashi lose again so soon,. Leo is a young local técnico, and this would be a big step back. If Okumura is going to lose big in Guadalajara any time soon, it should be in a title match, not this. This is probably not going to be a large enough gate to pay for Toscano’s hair. Leono is a real possibility; they’ve largely given up on him, so this would be a fine enough way to cash out on the earlier wins (and would explain the reason for the recent hair win here.) Malefico is the old local rudo, so that’s always a reason possibility. My pick is still Loco Max, because he always grows his hair real long before a hair loss and his hair is real long again.

Neza: Unless someone not in the match ends up in the match, it has to be one of the Pirates; everyone else can do better than lose in Neza (and may have already agreed to.) Pirata Morgan Sr. is my pick, but Barba Roja or Pirata Morgan Jr. (the shorter, stouter one) are reasonable possibilities. Neither is around any promotion full time or really needs the mask to be the character. Pirata Sr. is probably getting a chuck of the money no matter who loses it.