Nikita suggested this on Twitter
CMLL’s Anniversary show is about 3 months and 2 days away. That sounds like a long time, but there’s usually a pretty clear indication of what CMLL expects to main event the show.
last 4 years
2009: Mistico and Negro Casas already had their big title matches
2008: Mistico/Perro was the clear main event and didn’t happen due to injuries, but they also already had Panther/V5 feuding
2007: Panther face Hijo de Lizmark in the main event of the 06/29 show, amid to “they can’t possibly be doing THIS for the Anniversary main event” cries. CMLL did throw a lot of people in the cage, but it did come down to Hijo de Lizmark & Blue Panther.
2006: Black Warrior vs Mistico was clear in January
2005 doesn’t fit, since they had a major show in August and were focusing on it first. Unless there’s an AAA TV taping in Mexico City in the next couple months, CMLL’s probably coasting until the Anniversary.
This year, there’s a feud to obviously big enough to main event the Anniversary show. The problem is there’s many of them, and it’s tough to figure out which is the real one and which are the fake outs. Mistico is feuding with no less than Mr. Aguila, Oriental, Volador Jr., Averno and they’ve done promos to tease a match with Lyger as well. On the other side, new rudo Hector Garza has been challenged to matches by both his former partners Hijo del Fantasma and La Mascara, but also Shocker. Those same tecnicos are also feuding with the Invasors (with both Fantasma/Psicosis and Olimpico/Psicosis being hyped at different times.) Rayo de Jalisco’s return and seeming success means the Rayo vs Universo direct match they never got around to doing the first time might come around this time, plus they seem to suddenly pushing Atlantis/Rayo hard. There’s more people to throw in feuds if you wanted to (and the whole Negro/Lyger idea, which has been talked about), but none of the current ones are particularly rising above the others.
The story isn’t any feud, it’s the volume of feuds. Which usually means a cage match. CMLL’s done two cage matches previously for the anniversary show: the Infernales vs Infernales name battle in 2001 (where Satanico got Mascara Magica’s mask), and the previously mentioned 2007 one. The latter was similar to this; instead of doing the one match everyone wanted to see (Perro/Mistico), they got to extend it longer while giving a different payoff. This year, the match the fans want to see more than most is Volador vs Mistico in a mask match, but it’s hard to believe CMLL would take Volador from rudo to unmasked in 3 months. Maybe they ought to, but they have a pattern of operating differently.
It’s not hard to come up with 12 names for the cage match. Again, the problem is actually cutting back to 12 names after you’ve come up with about 18 obvious ones. I’d go with this lineup:
- Mistico
- Shocker
- La Mascara
- Hijo del Fantasma
- Rayo de Jalisco
- Sombra
- Mr. Aguila
- Psicosis II
- Volador
- Averno
- Hector Garza
- Atlantis
Oriental is not included because I believe he’ll be, uh, unavailable to be used in this capacity in September. (It’d be too soon.) I may be wishcasting the Dinamitas not being involved and being done by this point. Sombra’s the biggest stretch as an inclusion, but I figure something will have to happen with him and Volador and Mistico by this point. If not, this would be a good time for that happen.
CMLL fans have seemed willing to accept cage matches for masks and hairs, turning out as if it was a big match even when the loser seems pretty obvious. Psicosis II losing his mask to Hijo del Fantasma probably would not work on it’s own, but it’d be an acceptable finish in this context.
Plan can still change; it would not be a big surprise if they had some other idea and were waiting until after the World Cup to unveil it. However, based on the cards they’ve played so far, this seems the most likely outcome.
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I agree with your assessment, but I will throw in Mascara possibly getting a win here too. He may not be a fav of the smarts, or us here on the ol’ luchablog, but he appears to be massively over, and CMLL obviously loves his work. I can see either him or Fantasma getting the win in the cage, with Psicosis or Histeria the loser.
If they go another direction… This could be Rayo finally cashing in on his mask. Could Atlantis possibly take his mask in order to set up a guy like Sombra or Averno taking the Atlantis mask next anniversary?
I think the main event for Aniversario, could be Mistico winning Volador Jr’s mask. It’s been pushed since January; & hopefully CMLL reignites this feud, concluding at Aniversario.
@Calabcd44: You don’t think that is short sighted? Unless Volador is one sexy bastard under that mask, CMLL would be better off leaving him masked.
I would actually wager that the young tecnico in CMLL with the greatest odds in favor of a mask loss is…. Mascara. He is a Brazo after all….
Very interesting post.
I gotta disagree with certain things though – namely the idea of one of the indy guys dropping their mask on the show. You have to remember the person who loses their mask on the Anniversary Show is going to get the biggest payday of the year for a single wrestler in the company. I doubt it would go over too well in the locker room if Psicosis, Aguila, Histeria, Alebrije or Oriental ended up getting that payday.
Let’s look at the list of wrestlers you provided:
– Black Warrior
– Lizmark Jr.
– Blue Panther
– Negro Casas
– Adding my own from 2004: Universo 2000*
(* = Who got the bump when depending on who you believe – either Wagner or Canek – backed out of losing their mask two weeks before the show)
All guys who had been with the company for a long time and got rewarded for their loyalty.
IMO at least one of the invaders will drop their mask at Arena Mexico at some point this year but I’m more inclined to see it happening on a smaller scale big show in September on a Sunday to celebrate Independance Day or even in August on a special show (ala Mictlan/Dragon Rojo). I would suggest July as the perfect month but with the Nuevo Laredo match presumably taking place I can’t see CMLL running their own mask match.
But back to September… for me the key is looking at who hasn’t gotten anything yet this year. Sombra got Felino’s mask. So that rules him out for me. Likewise Atlantis who won the tag tournament in February. I don’t buy for a second Rayo came back to drop his mask. His ego wouldn’t allow it. Shocker/Garza’s deal seems like a good year-end deal rather than an Anniversary Show main event.
For me it boils down to whether the rumors about Lyger are true or not. If they are – I can easily see a Negro/Lyger vs Mistico/Averno match with the losers facing each other in a mask vs mask or mask vs hair match. If the rumors aren’t true – I’m sticking with Mistico vs Volador Jr. in a straight up singles mask match.
@Rob: I just can’t see them killing Volador like that. Volador v Mistico for masks is obviously a match that would raw well – why not stretch it out for another year and do it at the 2011 anniversary and really get a big house? Like I said, unless Volador is a sexy bastard under that mask that will make the female fans go wild ala Latin Lover, I do not see why they would cut Volador’s legs out from under him by dropping the mask so soon…
Another addendum to what Cubs wrote – I think that this would make more sense as 12/16 guys all of the same ilk – meaning masked. My 12 would be…
Mistico
Volador
Sombra
Mascara
Psicosis
Histeria
Fantasma
Rayo Jr
Atlantis
Averno
Mephesto
Olimpico
This, with maybe a Negro/Liger title match, and trios pitting Garza against Shocker would be an interesting card…
@Nikita: I guess it just boils down to us looking at things differently. You think Volador losing his mask would be killing him dead/cutting his legs out whereas I see Volador losing his mask as being the best thing that can happen to him. I see it as him getting rewarded by getting a big payday and then becoming a top rudo without his mask.
The other thing is CMLL has been teasing Mistico vs Volador the entire year thus far and I really think there would be a strong backlash even from the hardcore CMLL fans if that wasn’t the September main event. You can tease a match over and over and over until eventually it reaches the point where people stop caring (ala Bracito vs Peq Warrior). I think if CMLL tries to extend this into next year it will be a huge mistake since they’ve already run through two years worth of angles in one year with Mistico sorta turning, Mistico teaming with his arch enemy, various singles matches, a title switch, Mistico going back tecnico, Volador going tweener, Volador alligning with Averno and various Relevos Incriebles matches. What else can you do to extend this feud?
And again (re: the list) I just can’t see any indy guys getting a big payday on the biggest show of the year.
Just curious – what makes you think they would just hand over a huge payday to someone just because they lose their mask at Anniversario?
Also, I remember the backlash when Blue Panther was unmasked at Anniversario. People bitched and complained that V5 didn’t deserve that kind of win. I certainly do not think that the fans are stupid, but at the same time, I think the guy winning the big mask at Anniversario may be just as important as who loses. So what if Psicosis or Histeria get a bigger than usual payday to lose their mask if it means a guy like Mascara or Fantasma getting a big win on CMLL’s biggest stage?
Besides, I’m willing to bet that one of the conditions to the AAA guys coming in was that they have to lose their masks to CMLL guys. While I bet they get nice paydays, I’m sure they will not be getting the same type of payday that a guy like Volador would get…
Well traditionally the person who loses their mask/hair at the Anniversary show gets the single biggest payoff of the year.
Villano V was most definitely the wrong guy to beat Panther but that result was explained by the promotion wanting to train the fans to not expect the obvious every time. The promotion was looking at the bigger picture in that case which is something most of us still disagree with to this day.
You’re right that the person who wins is just as important as the person who loses but it’s a total losing situation for everyone if what you suggest occurs. Histeria/Psicosis are nobodies. This was clearly evident when Sin Salida was put together and they were on the bottom of a six match show. CMLL is not going to have the same guys who only a few months ago were working midcard matches for EAW in front of 100 fans suddenly main eventing their Anniversary show even if it is to put over one of their future stars. If the goal is to give La Mascara or Hijo Del Fantasma a big win – why wouldn’t you feud them with either Efesto or Olimpico? Both of those masks are far more important, especially to the CMLL fanbase.
I agree that the condition of bringing in the ex-AAA guys is that they will lose their masks and I already suggested CMLL will do a second not-so-major show with a cage match involving CMLL wrestlers vs Independent wrestlers where someone like Alebrije or Psicosis will be unmasked. But that is something for a big Sunday show. You get a big crowd who knows they will see an unmasking and you hopefully give it to a youngster who could use a big win.
I’m a bit worried by my prediction of Mistico vs Volador now b/c all signs point to Mistico taking Oriental’s mask on July 12th and it would be a little weird (but not out of the realm of possibilities) to have Mistico win two heavily publicized mask matches in a two month span. Still sticking with my pick though and taking Histeria to lose on July 12th.
@Nikita: Who bitched about V5 beating Panther? I think you’re right about some of the ex-AAA’s losing their masks.
@Rob: @Rob: I can’t see Volador vs. Mistico happening. Volador is too young and important to lose his mask now. I see Mistico winning Aguila’s hair, or something like that, at Anniversary. Keep an eye on Rayo too. He could be in the main event picture by September.
I’d like to see some double stip matches, like Texano/Terrible vs. Bucanero/UG(or Atlantis/UG) or Texano/Terrible vs. Strongman/Shocker.
As soon as MVS/Dish Mexico gets their PPV channel up and running, I think we’ll see some big Sunday cards on PPV, with some kind of stip. For now, as Cubs(I think it was Cubs) suggested, we’ll continue to see Anniversary and Dos Leyendas as the big shows, while CMLL uses the other stip match shows to throw competition when AAA and WWE do something big in town.
If AAA or WWE don’t do anything big in December in Mexico City, they probably won’t even do a stip match to end the year.
If Oriental does indeed lose his mask, I would love to see him do a Muta/Tajiri/Kabuki gimmick with mist and facepaint.
Rob, if they do not do Mistico/Volador nor the cage gimmick, what do you see as being a worthy Anniversario main event?
@LLL – I can’t remember specifics, but I remember folks on here (and DVDVR) thinking it was BS that V5 was gonna get the showcase mask loss against Panther, and then more poo hitting the fan when V5 actually took the mask and it wasn’t Ultimo that did it. I remember the backlash again with Ultimo and V5 having a subpar match when V5 dropped his mask.
@Nikita: I think people were mad that they were swerved, which lead to the backlash. I don’t think anyone here thought Panther losing was so bad.
Blue Panther is a legend, but he has not been much of a draw in years, and I thought the win was a good one. Would UG be any more of a draw today if he beat Blue Panther?
UG vs. V5 was not much and after doing the gimmick where V5 got out the cage first the year before, they should’ve done a cage match again, with him losing the mask in a cage multi-man match.
I don’t see Oriental losing to Mistico in Nuevo Laredo. Sombra will probably get the win.
This year is the 20 year anniversary of Rayo vs. Cien Caras. I do see Rayo losing his mask within the next two or three years, but it needs to be built up. He could lose it to Atlantis if he is going to lose it this year.
I also suspect Perro Jr. will try to come back to CMLL.
@LLL: I think you’re not remembering this right at all. Maybe you should go back and look at the comments at the time, but 85% of the people around in that chat or the website that day were very unhappy with Villano V taking Blue Panther’s mask. (Poor Nikita was in the other 15%, and frustrated in trying to talk some sense into the rest of us.)
I think you’re most likely correct that Ultimo Guerrero would not be more of a draw for beating Blue Panther, but from a story viewpoint, Laguna’s Ultimo Guerrero defeating Laguna’s Blue Panther for his mask in a torch passing moment was an obvious dramatic way to go.
I believe Blue Panther vs Ultimo Guerrero would’ve been a better draw than Villano V vs Ultimo Guerrero, for both that one night and surely for that matches leading up to that night. But the issue for the people who were unhappy with V5 winning had little to do with the business side of things; very few of us here are actually affected by the business side of things and really only care about it as a means to explain the storyline side and not really as end to itself. There are far better, smarter, and more innovative businesses to care about than any of them who are involved in professional wrestling.
People hated that finish because the luchador who were more invested in lost. The guy who could’ve told better stories with the masked and who’d been a lot more capable of telling good stories was the one who lost, and the guy who’d meant little to the promotion and was mostly involved in poor matches was now guaranteed to stick around much longer.
Long term, having Villano V win made it sense to CMLL because it made mask matches a bit more unpredictable. I think they completely misread what their fans actually want. People may say they want to be surprised by finishes, but no one wants really surprises if they’re going to turn out disappointing. They may not say it, but people turn out to see people they care about get wins. They’ll talk about surprises a lot, but the fans want to be in the building when their team wins the championship, and all the better if the promotion makes it very clear that they’re going to win the championship on this particular night.
That’s why the whole Nuevo Laredo build has been around Mistico and Oriental. CMLL thinks people care about Mistico more than anyone else (a sound assumption, and it proves what they really thought of those .com polls) and they’re making it as clear as they can that it’ll be Oriental vs Mistico without actually just naming that as the main event.
If they had Sombra or Atlantis or whoever else win, that’d be a self defeating decision. They spend way too much time killing their own storylines off (either by reversing on them like with Garza, or dropping them like Dr. X/Fabian and all the midcarder mask matches challenges that have vanished.) They’re putting more hype into Mistico/Oriental than any of those, and if they follow up by not doing that match soon, then they’re effectively told the fans not to care about the stories they’re telling.
@cubs – to clarify, I thought V5 over Panther was a bad decision compared to just doing Panther v Ultimo. My point at the time was that CMLL thought they could do a massive house with Ultimo avenging Panther’s mask loss. A year later, in hindsight, it didn’t work. I just stated back then that, essentially, CMLL was banking on Panther’s mask for two big houses.
I dunno if Ultimo over Panther would have helped Ultimo’s drawing power, but it would have helped his credibility in spades. Ultimo would be a legit Ace/Maestro that a win over V5 could never give.
That’s my view on 2010 right now too – there hasn’t been a massive feud to blowoff at Anniversario that makes sense for a guy to get a massive payday from. Thus, it *has* to be about who gets the rub winning at Anniversario, doesn’t it? Unless Volador is a prettyboy under that hood…
The only way Alebrije should lose his mask is a mixed tag with Cujie. Alebrije unmasked and Cujie masked would make no sense. I’m still holding out hope we get Fantasma/Monito vs Alebrje/Cujie mask match in Arena Coliseo.
@Nikita: “Rob, if they do not do Mistico/Volador nor the cage gimmick, what do you see as being a worthy Anniversario main event? ”
Negro Casas vs Jushin Lyger in a hair vs mask match works for me but if the rumors aren’t true then unfortunately I have to be honest and say…
Atlantis vs Rayo De Jalisco Jr. in a mask match.
I don’t think Rayo would sell his mask but stranger things have happened and if CMLL backs out of doing Mistico/Volador they could throw a bunch of cash at Rayo to lose his mask to Atlantis which would set up Atlantis losing next year to Mistico or Ultimo Guerrero or ?Mascara Dorada? (playing off the tag tournament in Jan/Feb).
I will be very disappointed if Paco cheaps out and tries to run a hair match involving any pairing of Garza/Shocker/Panther/Felino.
They have to make it a mask match, the Mistico/Casas match had such an obvious outcome as NO ONE thought Casas was wining Mistico’s mask and hair grows back. Negro / Lyger has the same feel, hello barber’s chair.