What better way to start a preview then with a review:
previous CMLL major shows
03/20/09: Ultimo Guerrero beats Villano V
(there is no 12/08 major show)
09/19/08: Villano V beats Blue Panther
06/13/08: Heavy Metal loses to Perro Jr. in 10 man cage match
05/23/08: Toscano b Heavy Metal & Perro Jr. in a hair
03/21/08: Perro Jr. beats Hector Garza’s hair
It’s been 14 months since the last strongly build CMLL main event. It’ll be a couple more, at least, before the next one. I’ve spent enough time on why this match is boring, why this show is boring, and don’t feel like I’ve got anything new or special left to say about it. If CMLL can draw a great crowd with this match and this build, great for them, bad for the rest of us. This show should not be encouraged or endorsed.
The upside to the main event cage match is there’s no certain winner. The down side is there’s plenty of people who could lose, without it meaning much the next day. As usual, I’ll try to separate this out into groups, but the difference between the groups are slighter than ever.
Odds on the losers:
Would be really dumb to lose
– Negro Casas – strong shot to get the win as momentum
– Shocker – would be a total waste
– Hector Garza – Puebla injury sets up a nice near loss storyline
– Blue Panther – would be the most anti-climatic loss of his career, if not for the whole mask thing
– Mictlan – what point there is to having him would be gone
Long shots
– Terrible – ought to lose his hair somewhat more meaningful the first time
– Texano Jr. – why waste the really good elevation by knocking him back down in a meaningless way?
Maybe, but Maybe Later
– Toscano – would they risk him actually showing up?
– Maximo – already lost his hair once this year
– Ray Mendoza Jr. – still too soon
– Naito
– Yujiro – supposed to be around for a few more months, might as well save it
Strong chance
– Black Warrior – quite clearly has grown his hair out the last few months, much longer than usual. Maybe too obvious?
– Shigeo Okumura – however, the lowest guy on totem pole is usually one of the first few guys out
– Heavy Metal – lost this match last year, which maybe is the only reason he doesn’t lose it this year
Winners are tougher to figure. Shocker, Garza, Mictlan, Texano, Terrible and Negro all seem like guys who get credited with the win, and everyone else might be the first one out, I guess.
[poll id=”38″]
Predictions & Previews:
– Cesar
– Luchando Libre
– ESTO
– SuperLuchas – nicely detailed
– Ovaciones
– Estadio Deportes
Plan is to do have a post up for live coverage and comments tonight, probably sometime 9ish.
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I think either Yujiro or Naito is losing their hair. But seriously the cage match can’t be anything but bad. The fact that Mictlan, No Limit, & Ray Mendoza Jr.(aka Los Shitheads) are all in one match is HELL on EARTH for me. The matches on the undercard better be awesome, or (to quote Silver King) this show’s going to be Mal, Mal, Mal ,Mal,Mal.
What if the turnout determines the loser? Bigger turnout means a bigger name will lose. If there’s a small turnout, a lesser name will lose. That’s probably how an American promotion from the days of the territories would’ve done it anyway.
Watching RdL, it was interesting to see the feuds they focused on for this match. I’ll guess Texano Jr., gets the win over Negro Casas or Heavy Metal. Either way, I see Texano Jr., winning it.(when you think about it, “who will win” could be another poll).
Rob had a good point that Negro needs to be strong for Anniversary. If Negro is one of the last two in the ring, it should be against Heavy.
I’ll vote before the show starts.
I’m picking Hijo del Texano taking Garza’s hair.
Didn’t Texano win the match last year?
@Alan: Are you going?(I’m sure you said so and I missed your comment).
@Alan: Yes. Texano Jr beat Heavy Metal last year.
@LLL: No, I’m not going tonight. After three days of the Expo last week I’m taking a little break.
@LLL: I agree, but the bigger name would be Black Warrior, they got Okumura and Maximo there in case attendance is low and Warrior bails out.
Who wins is more interesting but at the same time, equally irrelevant, unless Shocker or Panther loses, no one would really be elevated by winning (well, save for Mictlan or Maximo), I think Toscano will take just because CMLL wants to portray him as a star.
You’re all fucking ruining it by picking Warrior to lose. It’s never the obvious guy and we’ve all made Warrior into the obvious pick.
RESTART THE POLL!
My official picks with exceptions:
Negro over Warrior…
EXCEPT
… if Negro isn’t winning, Toscano will be the ultimate winner…
EXCEPT
… if a tecnico is losing Toscano won’t be the ultimate winner, Texano Jr. will be and he will defeat Maximo for the second time this year.
There you have it.
Negro needs a big win heading into the Anniversary hair loss.
Toscano is due a big win b/c the CMLL bookers so retarded that they think he has drawing potential outside of attracting 10-20 extra females to a show.
Texanito is getting the superpush of the moment and looks to be the top rudo in 2010 so they gotta keep it going.
I don’t think EL JAPONES or EL OTRO JAPONES are losing b/c as noted they are still around till October. My guess with them is they will get into another feud – perhaps again with Garza and Toscano (if he’s still around) – and the one who always had hair during his career will take Garza’s hair only for Toscano (or his replacement) to get a hair win over EL OTRO JAPONES who started his career with no hair and wouldn’t have a problem losing it.
I’m not so sure Casas will be in the Anniversary main in a hair match vs. Mistico(assuming you mean he’s the opponent).
Shocker losing his hair at Anniversary should be the route to take.
LATV sucks. Still didn’t go with a new episode of Ras de Lona. Just like I predicted when they got the new programming director(female, from NJ, Puerto Rican, Telemundo background), Lucha would be f’d.
Maybe Headhunter III wins with Blue Panther getting shaved? …No?
@Anonymous: They teased that on Ras de Lona. That would be a disappointment.
If they want to give Negro Casas a big win before the Anniversary Show, it would make sense to let him dethrone Mistico as the constant Leyenda de Plata winner. Otherwise, it’s CMLL so the bookers will forget that the Leyenda de Plata tournament exists until late autumn.
Black Warrior has grown his hair since that DF absence/suspension in March. In last May, they punished Toscano with a hair loss after he came back from his suspension, so perhaps they will punish Black Warrior now for whatever he did in March.