We’re just a couple of days from the big twelve man cage of death match, where someone will lose their mask. The neat twist here isn’t so many guys in one cage, but an actual unpredictable results. Most of these multiman apuesta matches are a lot more like the eight way cage match in Arena Coliseo; everyone knew Okumura was going to be the loser as soon as he was announced in the match. There isn’t an obvious sucker in the bunch, and they haven’t hinted away the outcome.
That’s not to say we’re dealing with twelve clones, all on the same level. While the nothing is impossible, there are those who appear much safer than others, and a couple who seem more likely to be wearing their mask for the last time.
Let’s break down the chances of losing a mask or winning one on Friday for each wrestler. I’m working off career importance, recent push, future possibilities, lead in angles, and whatever else we can throw in (like the cibernetico, which I’ve been able to see.) The chances of being the ultimate loser or the lucky winner are rated on scale of 1 to 5, helpfully color/word coded.
1: low
2: guarded
3: elevated
4: high
5: severe
Averno
Chance of losing mask: low
Chance of winning mask: guarded
Why?: Averno will one day lose his mask; we’re about 20 months away from the moment where who and how was foreshadowed. When it happens, it’ll be by a La Mistica in the middle of the ring, and since Mistico isn’t in this match, he’s safe. CMLL does like him and he’ll probably get a good spot or two in, but this match isn’t about him.
Felino
Chance of losing mask: low
Chance of winning mask: guarded
Why?: Felino’s the outlier in this match; he may not get the booking attention Heavy and Negro get, but he’s still a Casas brother and has had way too prestigious of a masked career for it to end like this. He also won’t get much benefit from a mask win, compared to the younger/fresher midcarders. Felino might be one of the last to leave to tease something historic happening, but he’ll still be masked when he teams up with Kid Tiger on indy shows this weekend.
La Mascara
Chance of losing mask: low
Chance of winning mask: high
Why?: Mistico may be the Prince of Silver and Gold, but La Mascara seems like CMLL’s current golden boy. Mexican Welterweight Champion, Rey de Aires, solid progress into the semimain, sometimes partner of Mistico and the always important family connections – it all adds up to a big push. So big, I think it hurt his odds here. La Mascara’s won so much already, it’s hard to justify giving him more when others have so little.
Mascara Purpura
Chance of losing mask: low
Chance of winning mask: elevated
Why?: Ovaciones complaints are irrelevant; the disagreement of a beat writer rarely have an effect of what they’re covering (and if it did, I so want that lucha beat.) For that matter, MY complaints are irrelevant – regardless of what you or I might think about his work, he’s being pushed and pushed strong. No one who won a special bonus lightning match two weeks prior is going to lose his mask here; that’d require a complete 180 in internal thought about the guy in a very short time, and CMLL doesn’t flip like that. He’s easily the odds on favorite to do the now clichéd crazy spot off the top of the cage, and it’s not out of the question that the promotion’s decided to all the way (or a long way) with him and follow thru with a big win here.
Mephisto
Chance of losing mask: severe
Chance of winning mask: elevated
Why?: Mep turned into a focal point of this match the moment he cracked the plaque over Volador Jr.’s head. Volador will definitely get his revenge, and this would be the ultimate revenge. Mephisto isn’t going to fade away with a mask – he’s still got a belt no one remembers (alt theory: if he doesn’t lose his mask, perhaps that’s what Volador will target instead?), he and Averno would still be the top concept tag team in Mexico and would be favored any time they do a rematch. Mephisto doesn’t seem likely to move upwards from the spot he’s in without something that changes the status quo, and his spot wouldn’t be threatened by losing a mask; it’s a cool mask, but he still can be a rudo without it, and his father had lost his mask twice by this time in his career. Mephisto is a co-favorite.
Misterioso II
Chance of losing mask: elevated
Chance of winning mask: elevated
Why?: Misterioso is the one I have the least feel for it. They’ve done a on/off second generation Misterioso/Volador feud, and if you figure Volador’s going to be in this one late (I do), Misterioso would fit being there. He seems as logical to be the new Guerrero guy as anyone if they’re meaning a Pandilla member, and you’d think they’d want the new member to be a big deal in some fashion. He got the Gran Alternativa win, and you can spin that to mean he’s owed some payback in a major way, or they’d like to keep springboarding him up the card. Misterioso will be notable for some reason during this match.
Neutron
Chance of losing mask: high
Chance of winning mask: low
Why?: There are three varieties of luchadors who lose these matches: those much lower on the card than the other participants (Okumura-types), those who got the better of the heat up angle (Mephisto here), and those who haven’t been around much but show up when they can make a lot of money by losing their masks (see Angel Azteca dropping the hood to Arkangel.) Neutron had barely been in DF till the Reyes de Aires and the lead up to this match, which sure sounds like Angel Azteca. It’s a last minute thing where CMLL needed a bail out for this show, Neutron’s been around long enough it means something, and it doesn’t hurt long term plans because Neutron probably wasn’t involved in those (which is also why he has no chance of winning this.) Neutron was the first one out in last week’s cibernetico – foreshadowing? If he’s in the final 2, CMLL has one less black w/lightning mask around.
Nitro
Chance of losing mask: severe
Chance of winning mask: low
Why?: Nitro’s not quite a fit for the Okumura role in this match, but he’s the closest we’ve got. He’s also got the same positioning deal as Mephisto; he’s going to be a third match tops guy mask or not mask. It might a case of losing a mask in a multi-way match being worth more than in a singles one. Nitro losing his mask is not going to be promoted as a main event under any other circumstance, and this could be his chance to cash in on it. His lack of upward mobility prevents him from being a serious contender to win this.
Pantera
Chance of losing mask: elevated
Chance of winning mask: low
Why?: Similar reasons to Neutron, but tempered by his more frequent appearances in CMLL. Pantera’s (also) not at the end of his career, but as 42 year old having wrestled for 22 years, he’s far closer to retirement than his start, and we really don’t know enough lucha gossip to know he hasn’t thought about hanging it up at some point soon. (That’s some wicked twisted logic, I know.) Mexico City probably could promise more money, but he’s been such an Arena Naucalpan guy over the course of his career, I’d think he’ll lose it there. Still, he’s a nice dark horse choice.
Sagrado
Chance of losing mask: elevated
Chance of winning mask: elevated
Why?: Another guy just hanging in the middle; far from likely but not a huge shock if it happens, either way. You could justify Sagrado dropping his mask to make Mistico more unique (the last survivor from planet Fray Tormenta) and/or to build up someone for a feud with Mistico next (as if he needs another one). They liked him before, and he is 1/3rd of the Mex Trios Champs, so they could decide to restart him as a singles just as easily. He’s mostly likely just to be a guy who climbs out of the cage during the chaos, with no one noticing till minutes later, but anything is possible.
Sangre Azteca
Chance of losing mask: low
Chance of winning mask: guarded
Why?: His New Japan deal would likely be negatively affected by losing his mask, and since he surely wants to keep that, he’ll hold onto his hood. There’s always the chance Panico or someone wakes up one day, recalls that Sangre is awesome good, and decides to finally do something with him (some may state that’d be the most shocking outcome of all), but he’s more here to continue making other people look good.
Volador
Chance of losing mask: high
Chance of winning mask: severe
Why?: Volador’s the man of the hour. If he had won the cibernetico and nothing had happened, he’d be have a severe shot at losing his mask under even/steven booking strategy. Instead, he got laid out, and he’s got an instant chance for a tremendous amount of revenge against the rudos. I think he’s still a strong possible loser, with the beatdown last week being used in as post match excuse (I’ve kinda expected some theatrics with him temporarily taken out of the match early in the week for medical reasons and put back in later), and maybe some if it’s because it’s hard to believe they’re actually going with Volador in a major match, after teasing and playing with the notion off and on for years. And perhaps they’ll not follow up on it this time either (I think he’ll get a belt before they forget), but I’m sure this night will be a huge night in his career.
Did I underrate or overrate someone’s chances? Who are your picks?
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Volador loses his mask, losing it to Averno. Why? Well, it doesn’t make sense, which helps. Plus I figure it comes down to Volador v Averno/Mephisto, and Mephisto runs when he gets the chance. Then Volador takes Mephisto’s title to even things up.
Awesome write-up. I just wish you were setting actual Vegas odds b/c I would make a KILLING when Felino loses.:) Yes, I’m still picking Felino to lose with Nitro as my backup. In fact, I’m going to pick the final four as Felino, Nitro, Misterioso II & Pantera w/ Misterioso II going over Felino.
I disagree with your ranking of Purpura as elevated for taking a mask b/c that would cause a severe backlash. He’s already falling into the “Misticlone” area where the real hardcore fans already think he’s headed to a super-push much like Mistico just b/c he can fly. Purpura taking an established rudo’s mask now would not go over well. I can see him being the 5th/6th/7th last guy in the cage and then doing a plancha off the top of the cage to the floor onto a group of Volador Jr./Averno/Mephisto/Mascara who are already brawling out there after escaping.
If you go by storyline, Mephisto certainly is in severe danger of losing but I think that’s just a tease. I can’t see Averno or Mephisto losing their masks seperately. It’ll be in a tag match against Mistico and someone.
Neutron is a guy I’m definitely worried for based on the booking. He’s easily the weakest guy going in as two weeks ago he got injured during a trios match and in the Torneo he got one offensive move before being eliminated. The promotion clearly wants the fans to think he is the weakest link. The only reason I haven’t switched him with Nitro as my second choice to lose is b/c he is a nobody. 18,000 fans will not go home satisfied if Neutron loses. If this were the semi-main, I would easily pick Neutron as my first choice and Nitro as my second choice but since this is a main event I gotta pick someone bigger to lose.
Nitro is definitely a strong candidate just based on the fact, as you pointed out, he’s the Okumura-type guy. He’s got nowhere to go. The advantage (disadvantage?) he has over Neutron is he has been positioned at the top of the card various times(specifically the Boricuas run as the top rudo group) so his mask would mean more to the crowd. If Nitro loses, expect a guy like Volador Jr., La Mascara or Misterioso II to be the winner. No sense having another old guy like Pantera, Felino or Mephisto do the honors.
Pantera is working in Guadalajara on Sunday (w/ Volador Jr., Nitro & Azteca). Past history has shown whoever is set for a mask loss doesn’t show up on cards soon afterwards as a way to build them debuting without a mask. Taking a quick look at the lineups – Felino and Neutron are strangely absent from many shows. Take this into STRONG consideration.
I like the idea of Sagrado being setup for a singles run, possibly feuding with Mistico. I’ve always been a huge fan of Sagrado from his Genetico days and I think one day he and Cien Caras Jr. will be main eventing Arena Mexico for the CMLL Heavyweight Title. The thing is – that is a LONG time away. Sagrado is still really green and a feud with Mistico might be a horrible mess. I think if he keeps improving the way he has been, they might unmask him in a year or two.
Sangre Azteca would actually have been severe for me if he didn’t have the current deal with NJPW. If he loses his mask, he’s done there, as you pointed out. But CMLL hates their guys leaving them for another promotion so they could try and punish him by forcing him to lose his mask. Of course if that happened he would have left the promotion by now. I can see him being one of the early guys out of the cage so that nobody ends up remembering he was actually in the match which is what CMLL wants.
I see the Volador Jr. angle as another tease. Sure, he COULD lose his mask to Misterioso II or Mephisto but he’s got nowhere to go after being unmasked. His dad was able to do it but he had 15 solid years as a top luchador going for him. Volador Jr. has yet to accomplish anything. I’d be VERY angry if this match is just being used to have Volador Jr. drop his mask to Averno or Mephisto so in turn they are built up stronger for when Mistico takes their masks.
So once again – I’m taking Felino to lose with Nitro as a backup. Misterioso II is my winner if it’s him and Felino, Misterioso II or La Mascara are my winners if it’s with Nitro at the end.
Rob
Surely not Volador???
I’d be pretty amazed if it was him. If they did go with him, i’d say the only reason would be if he’s a bit of a prettyboy and they’re looking to fill the ‘Ricky Marvin’ role. it would also have the effect of distinguishing him from Mistico if they were going to push him.
But nah, i’m clutching at straws trying to come up with reasoning, I just can’t see it – and i also personally hope it doesn’t happen, because i like the Volador look/masked persona
Likewise with Cubsfans assessment of Mephisto – I don’t think there’s a hope in hell of him losing either.
In a relatively underhyped multi-man cage match with almost no history/backstory, i really can’t see any of the bigger names losing the mask in an upset. To me, it’s coming down to either Neutron or (sadly) Neutron. There is a valid argument that either of these two losing would be a bit of a cop-out on a big show, but imo if it was going to be anyone of any ‘name’ value losing, it would be hyped, and they would at least lose it in a one v one or 4-way or something.
It would be pretty exciting if it did come down to neutron and Nitro though (at least for me, the fans in the arena would probably shit on it). Because in that case, it’s anyone’s guess. I’d still tend to think there’s more chance of Neutron losing it, for the reasons Cubsfan listed (i.e he fills 2 out of the 3 criteria), and also because Nitro is already in an established and semi-regular masked trios in the Pandilla Guerrero.
With Neutron being around Mexico City in recent months, i’ve been thinking ‘great, maybe they’re actually doing something with him’. I’ll be pissed off if i find out on Saturday morning that that ‘something’ is actually losing his mask, which will probably be about the last we see of him again! :(
To me, it’s coming down to either Neutron or (sadly) Neutron
Oops – better make that Nitro :)
I wrote a somewhat long repsonse, but I’ll make it smaller since I cancelled it on accident.
Mephisto – His mask is too cool to lose, and I think it would lessen his team with Averno. I don’t see it happening.
Volador – I don’t think he lose it. He will probably win.
Other than those two I can agree for the most part.
I’ll take Volador over Nitro, with Misterioso as a back up.
Nice write up btw, things like these make matches more exciting, intriguing, and interesting. You should do more of these.
I’m shocked you put Mephsito so high. I’m guessing it’s base on storylines but still. I see him and averno losing to santo/casas for the masks.
It’s going to come down to Felino/Volador vs Purpura and Neutron with Volador beating Purpura.