Category: chicago national league ball club

roster moves made easy

How many times did Len bring up the “tough roster decision they’ll have to make on Monday?” Five times? Fifteen? Fifty? It’s really not that hard…

Fuld—–>Johnson
Hart—–>Guzman
Hoffpauir—->A Ram

First two are really obvious. Everything Sam Fuld is doing is what Reed Johnson normally does, so you don’t need both. Kevin Hart has barely pitched, and then usually only in mop up – Patton can go back to doing that.

Micah is the only questionable call, but even then, he’s a guy who hasn’t been used much since interleague play ended. With Ramirez back, Jake Fox makes more sense as the 1B/LF/RF, since they can also sub him in at 3B and he’s hitting a lot better. Micah should go down just to get his timing back, because he’s seemed way off when he has gotten in.

The actual tough roster move is going to come when Aaron Miles is ready to go again. If the Cubs expect that to happen before the All Star break and they plan on going to 11 pitches at that point until after the break (which probably would be just for a few games), that may change the decision a little bit. They’d be bringing up a pitcher after the All Star break, and whoever got sent down today would be eligible, so perhaps they might plan ahead.

If that doesn’t play into it, and they think Jeff Baker can add power like they thought, and A Ram doesn’t seem to be having any problems, it’s either Fox or Fontenot getting sent down, probably depending on how they’re hitting at the exact moment the decision is made. Either way, it really should be Miles not coming back, but they’ll make a salary > contributions choice, I’m sure.

Games 11 to 20 and a lot of old copy on Angel Guzman

4-6. 4-6 doesn’t actually look good no matter how you look at it.

11: W 7-5
12: W 7-2
13: L 0-3
14: L 1-7
15: L 3-4
16: L 2-8
17: W 10-3
18: L 2-7
19: W 11-3

Let’s look at it another way.

Runs Scored: 0 1 2 2 3 7 7 10 10 11 (5.3)
No 4s, no 5s, no 6s. Lots of complete blowouts and shutdowns.

Runs Allowed: 2 3 3 3 4 5 7 7 8 10 (5.2)
Much more balanced, but a little packed on the high end.

MVP thru 20

1.58 Soriano
0.82 Fukudome
0.61 A-Ram
0.38 Hill
0.33 Lilly

Highlights in a period of nagging injuries
– a Z game where he wins and gets 3 hours and is completely awesome; guaranteed 2-3 a year. And then penciling himself onto the bench the next day.
– Harden looking pretty solid and getting half the wins in this set. Still have no idea how this is going to turn out.
– Angel Guzman finally getting his first win. Also, all the earliest articles mentioning Angel Guzman on the Tribune site:

May 20, 2002 Q & A

Now that some of the shining stars of the Cubs’ farm system (Patterson, Cruz, Hill and Zambrano) have reached the majors to be quickly followed by Choi, Prior and Kelton, what is the state of the Cubs’ farm system? Are there many, if any, other promising names beyond these and Ben Christensen? Or are we looking at a serious dropoff in talent again? –Larry, Washington, Utah

I’m looking at Baseball America’s list of the Cubs’ top 30 prospects. The first six (Prior, Cruz, Choi, Kelton, Hill and Zambrano) are older guys, but the next wave (outfielder Nic Jackson, right-hander Ben Christensen, shortstop Luis Montanez and left-hander ) are all in Double-A or below. Some of the other prospects the Cubs like are pitchers , Angel Guzman and Felix Sanchez. Most baseball people don’t predict a huge dropoff in talent.

Prior – you know
Juan Cruz – doing okay as a bullpen guy
Hee Seop Choi – back in the Korean league
David Kelton – retired, last played in 2006
Bobby Hill – last seen playing for the Newark Bears
Z – Z!

Angel Guzman
Nic Jackson – indy ball? only made one season at AAA and didn’t hit
Ben Christensen – never made it out of AA
Luis Montanez – AAA/MLB guy for Baltimore
Steve Smyth – made it up the same year, wasn’t ready, drifted back down, last seen in indies
Jae-Kuk Ryu – made it up with the Cubs and the Rays, wasn’t much good. Free agent?
Felix Sanchez – 2 career strikeouts!

Guess the second class was not a dropoff after all. No one knows nothing about prospects, or at least no one who spends all his team covering the major league team knows that team’s prospects.

03/21/2003:

Angel Guzman combines presence with pitches that dance. He has established an extremely high standard yet is only 21, suggesting the really good years lie ahead.

Guzman is the complete package. He should have fans hyperventilating as they count the days until he arrives as an ace with staying power.

But the Cubs have accumulated so many elite arms under general manager Jim Hendry and scouting director John Stockstill that they didn’t need to tip their hands about Guzman.

Not so much. This is the year after Prior came up and we were all willing to be snowed into believing there’d be more like him. The other elite arms:
– Bobby Brownlie – with the Nats? still hasn’t made the majors
– Andy Sisco – fat; ate himself out of the Cubs and other teams since
– Felix Sanchez
– Luke Hagerty – never made it to AA! fine result first a first round pick
– Todd Wellemeyer – yea yea I know
– Jae Kuk Ryu
– Justin Jones – hasn’t made it to AAA, but he started when he was 17 so he’s still only 24 and has a little bit of time left
– Carmen Pignateillo – briefly made it with the Cubs, now doing bad with the Twins (but at least HE made it)
– Billy Petrick – started the season with the Cubs in 07 and ended up all the way back down in A ball in 2008. Playing indy ball in Chicago.
– Ben Christensen

I guess the point here is, even if the first win came about 6 years after people start talking about, Angel still has had a better career than most. And if you really want to be depressed by the level of Cubs drafting this decade, go look at the list of first round picks; unless Brownlie makes it up this year, not a single 1st round will have made it since Prior in 2002. Or second round. Jake Fox and Petrick are third rounders.

And then there’s this: 06/29/2003:

Double-A starter Angel Guzman will have his shoulder examined Monday by Dr. James Andrews in Birmingham, Ala. An MRI of Guzman’s shoulder showed no tear, but even in a best-case scenario, Guzman is expected to miss several weeks.

Did they miss it? Did he just not tear it until later? Doesn’t really matter now.

after 10

6-4! 6-4 doesn’t look great, just one loss away from event, but if you stack together a season worth of 6-4, that’s 97 wins. I think that’ll work.

MVP, by win probably added:
(1 = worth 1 game over five hundred)
0.86 Soriano
0.74 Fukudome
0.55 Marmol
0.38 Koyie Hill
0.32 Lilly

Win probably doesn’t consider fielding at all, so no Reed. Otherwise, that’s about in line what waht I’d say from watching. If anything, it undersells Soriano, who’s carried this team and already given the Cubs 2 wins they had no business winning. (Looking at the numbers, I think it doesn’t include Friday’s game yet, which explains it.) Fukudome has people believing again, Marmol is the relief ace regardless of when he’s being used, Koyie Hill hits better after his fingers were sawed off (who’d figure? anyone who saw him bat in 2007?), and Ted had a really good game in a tight game.

LVP

-0.81 Gregg
-0.48 Bradley
-0.36 Miles
-0.31 Soto
-0.17 Hoffpauir

Most of that is sample size, I think. Sot’s looked hurt, Miles is hitting like Miles. Bradley’s walking, but he’s not getting the hits yet. (Didn’t hit the ump either.) Gregg – well, you blow a game at the end, that’s what you get.

Cubs probably should’ve known Gregg could only get up once per game without his knee locking up before trading for him. That’s one of those things that are supposed to be important when you’re having a closer compeition. And it’s the only reason Gregg is still the nominal closer – Lou’s going to use Marmol when it’s close and whenever he can, though it’ll take a odd situation like Friday’s game where Lou didn’t see it was worth using him until the 9th. If the Cubs are up 1 in the 7th or the 8th, Lou’s not saving Marmol until the 9th. He’s going to get a lot of innings again.

There’s a lot of issues that aren’t really as big problems unless they keep going this way – eventually, they’re going to need some guys who haven’t been hot to pick up with Soriano isn’t, and the bullpen’s going to be totally thrashed if the starters can’t consistenly go longer (funny how the last two Z starts have been him been below average starts lasting longer than anyone would like just to bridge the gap a little.)

Still, so far, so good.

what I’m looking forward to the next 10: going to a couple. I think I’ll start today.

a whole lot of nothing

I have other stuff I want to say, but I can’t find a way to make that interesting. For some reason, that’s stopping me, but I’m blocked.

At least, Cubs wise, it’s not my fault. There’s really not a lot meaningful going on. Stuff like the last spot of the bullpen only matters if Angel Guzman and Chad Gaudin is being shipped out, because that last spot will change hands many times during the season. It always does. Same thing with the catching spot (if they don’t keep Koyie Hill, they’ll surely be able to stash him in Iowa.)

Marshall starts as the fifth starter, but should have no expectation of staying there unless he performs. Same thing with Hoffpauir on the bench, and the closer spot – anything that’s so indecisive to be on the line during March can’t really be secured with anything but regular season performance. The big decisions were made during free agency, and the good and bad performances in Mesa won’t mean anything by about April 15.

So far, I’ve been able to keep to my streak of not watching a Spring Training game. The WBC has helped a lot (though not the final round announcers – I’ve got the game on pause as a type this, just so I can fast forward more thru their banality.) But I’m reading people who are watching complain about how much the season needs to get here, and I don’t feel much different. I’m ready for this to get started again.

The one interesting is the whole downfall of Chad Gaudin. There was a stretch after he came over where he was good, right? Not so much, with everyone speculating about him getting cut last week. That trade with the is looking fairer by the day.

Pool D, Game 4 (DOM 1 – NED 2, F/11)

So.

This was kind of a conflicting 11th inning. It was impossible to root against the Netherlands. But the whole advantage to having Marmol pitch for the DR instead of in Mesa was to prove himself in situations just like this, game on the line, one run league, the pressure of the world on him.

And, well, Carlos didn’t get lit up, they weren’t the biggest hits he gave up and Holland looked totally overmatched most of the inning. Just not enough of it, and now I wonder how he’ll rebound it. Carlos now has plenty of playoff type ghosts of his own to exorcise:

            IP   ERA
2007 NLDS  3.0  9.00
2008 NLDS  2.2  6.75
2009 WBC   1.2  5.40

In a year where few positions are really up for grabs in spring training – Fontenot is going to start at 2B, Marshall is going to be the fifth starter, and no one cares who the backup catcher is – maybe the closer battle just opened up for real.

(It’s probably worth keeping in perspective – the problem wasn’t the DR’s pitching. Or even fielding, as bad as it was. You’ve got to score more than 4 runs off Netherlands, or everyone on that team needs to be signed tomorrow.)

25 Man Roster Guess

I spent much time debating the Heilman trade – just not here, but enough to get out of my system. I have an actual non-Cubs post floating around in my head, just not yet the interest to write it out yet. Maybe later.

This is more a guess at what will end up happening rather than a reflection of what’s going on now.

01 LF Soriano
02 SS Theriot
03 1B D Lee
04 RF Bradley
05 3B A Ram
06 CF Kosuke
07 CA Soto
08 2B Fontenot

I don’t think anyone’s realized A-Ram’s batting fifth now. I sure didn’t until I just wrote that. In a different world, Theriot leads off, D-Lee hits second (he’s a 2 based on last season), Milton is 3, Soriano is 4, Ram is 5. Soto should be the 6th hitter, but there’s no way Lou is going three straight righties and then two straight lefties.

09 CA Bako
10 IF Miles
11 OF Johnson
12 OF Gathright
13 PH Hoffpauir

Miles starts vs lefties, Bako only starts versus righties (and even then, probably only 30-40 games.) I don’t think they’re actually planing on bringing Hoffpauir right now, but they kinda haven’t signed a veteran back to replace him. As always, I wish they were bringing 14 hitters, but they’re not. Hitter #14 isn’t so apparent at the moment anyway; I guess either Jack Fox, Sam Fuld or NRI So Taguchi, not the best of ideas. 40 man roster is a little bit unbalanced at the moment; I’ve got ever IF on the ML roster (so a move has to be made if someone gets hurt in the middle infield.)

14 SP Z!
15 SP Harden
16 SP Dempster
17 SP Lilly
18 SP Marshall
19 SP Heilman

Actually, a virtual six man rotation (they all won’t be there at the same time, but at least 6 guys will get at 15 starts) is probably more believable than Heilman (who I defended early but now am shady after reading so much about him being The Worst Pitcher In The Major Leagues last year) starting, but if not him, who? (Oh, him.)

20 CL Marmol
21 R1 Gregg
22 R2 Gaudin
23 L1 Cotts
24 R3 Viscano
25 R4 Guzman

26 SP Samardzija – for whenever Harden gets hurt

I may look a fool later on, but I strongly feel Samardzija starts the year in AAA as a starter. Not only because of how overmatched he looked by the end of last season, but because everyone’s betting on him getting 5-7 big summer starts when Harden needs time off and he’ll be more effective after learning more Iowa than pitching out of the bullpen.

I like Gaudin more than the team does. And I’m just blind guessing on Angel Guzman; I don’t know what to expect from him, but I’d bet the hope is he can eventually take Marmol’s spot as Marmol takes Wood’s spot. It’s not going to be that easy, but it’s a decent dream.

Another oddity – there’s more guys in camp, but right now only Cotts, Lilly, and Marshall are left handed pitchers on the 40 man. If one of the bullpen lefties go down, that’s another move that’ll have to be made.

Santo not in the HOF

A shocking turn of events. Or not all: I think he should be in, have long stopped being surprised he’s not and try to spend the least amount of time possible thinking about it. It’s only the be all and end all if you care at all.

The one thing is – I know everyday, we know more about baseball than we knew the day before. Know what effect different things have, how to better rate what a player has done, how to tune oout some of the interference. With Santo, and with others like him, I gotta think I’d rather not have the benefit of the improved knowledge and just do one vote. It’d be unfortunate for someone to be rejected who’s later realized to be qualified, but it’s cruel to annually (or biannually) reject someone because you can’t come to a consensus and never will.

Speaking of unsurprising things treated as news: why was everyone surprised the Cubs didn’t offer Kerry arbitration? A Kerry Wood without draft pick penalties attached stands a better chance of getting a long term deal. It would have been better for the Cubs to get something for signing Kerry and I think he’s going to do fine either way), but Hendry was pretty clear the goal here wasn’t making the Cubs better*, it was to make Kerry some money. Kinda bizarre goal for the GM of a team, but a honest one.

* – at least in the short term, I’m sure this can be spun around into some selling point for future free agents.

K, bye

I had a whole post about walking around Wrigleyville a few Sundays ago – the Sunday that would’ve been Game 5 of the World Series, a home game – and how desolate and empty and depressing the area was, and how I was still despondent and not ready to ride the rollercoaster again. The thing is, I think I was not ready to post about it either. It sucked, it still sucks, and it will continue to suck for a long time. Occasionally, I hope to find things that stumble me into feeling again.

Like yesterday.

This whole Kerry’s gone this is weird. You’d this is a situation where Kerry’s agent said he wanted a multi-year deal, the Cubs had to pass, and that was the end of that. No no on – Kerry was willing to take another one year deal, whatever it took to stay, and Hendry is pushing him out the door because he likes him so much he wants Wood to get a multiyear deal. I understand what Hendry is trying to do for Kerry, but I can’t think of another situation where a valuable player wanted to stay with a team, was willing to take a below market contract and was well liked by that team, and the team didn’t want him.

I think everyone who’s been a fan of the Cubs wants to see Kerry do well where ever he ends up, and I’m sure he’ll get one of the biggest ovations of the year when/if he returns to Wrigley. It’s just strange how it ends. If anything, this breakups indicates Hendry was worried about Kerry being a (bigger) injury risk or drop off candidate in ’09, and he wanted Kerry to get his money while he still could. Hopefully other GMs don’t feel the same way, because the closer market is busy enough. (And really really hopefully, the best offer doesn’t come from Milwaukee or Saint Louis, who both could use him.)

I’m not a Kevin Gregg fan – he seems like an average reliever who just happened to be the guy handed the ball for a year of saves and benefited from being in the one position in the bullpen with a counting stat people believe in. I heavily doubt he’ll be the closer with the Cubs; heck, I doubt he’ll even be the setup guy, if Gaudin can pitch as well as he did. Gregg is fine for a year, fine for not getting stuck with a 3yr/8mil Howry type pitcher in his spot, but I think he’s only better than the usual alternatives, not actually good.

The trade sounded a lot better when I thought it was Kevin Greed for Jose Ascanio, and not Jose Ceda. I guess Hendry was going thru withdrawal, not having built up the Marlins pitching with the best Cubs prospects for a couple of years.

you and me both

Mark DeRosa’s blog entry, tonight:

You’ve got to let this flow over you and consume you for a couple hours. You have to. “Z” was pitching a great game, he’s feeling good, the double play gets turned, we go back into the dugout and the whole game is different. Our offense is able to relax and it’s different.

But when you find yourself down 5-0, a team that has a 1-0 lead in the series, they’re able to relax, Billingsley is able to pound the strike zone, their hitters are a lot more patient, a lot more calm. They’re trying to have good at-bats and tack on runs. We’re trying to press to get the score tied and take the lead. For me, this is terrible. I don’t know — I’ll be up for awhile tonight.

Part of me doesn’t want to sleep tonight – just pull a chair out to the patio and stare at the stars until sun rises. The rest of me wants to sleep and not wake up until 9 pm Saturday.