yearly tradition done at the last minute because I thought the opening rounders started Wednesday and yesterday was a fine day to catch up on sleep.
(may click the link to see if I completely go nuts and put Loyola all the way through.)
Okay, let’s do this game by game and then put the bracket at the end.
Game 1: #7 Butler (13-14, 7-9) @ #6 Wright State (14-14, 8-8), 6 PM CST Tuesday
LINE: Wright State by 2 1/2
01/22/05: Wright 59, Butler 54 @ Butler
02/07/05: Butler 61, Wright 55 @ Wright
Butler’s coming in this game 4-1 in it’s last 5, only having lost to UWM. Wright’s 3-2 in the same span, but really got hurt on tiebreakers. They both played UIC the last week; Wright lost, Butler won. It feels like things are starting to come together for Butler, so I’ll go with them.
Game 2: #9 Youngstown State (5-22, 2-14) @ #4 Loyola-CHICAGO (11-16,8-8), 7 PM CST Tuesday
LINE: LU by 16
12/21/04: Youngstown State 76, Loyola-Chicago 68 @ Youngstown State
01/26/05: Loyola-Chicago 71, Youngstown State 50 @ Loyola-Chicago
I still can not believe they’re a 4 seed. They were 3-12 at one point in the season – that’s the stretch where the first meeting happended, and they’re 8 and 4 since. Unbelievable. Whitesell needs an award or something. Ramblers are coming in with a 4 game winning streak, and I think they’re moving on with 5.
Game 3: #8 Cleveland State (9-16, 6-10) @ #5 UIC (14-13, 8-8), 7 PM CST Tuesday
LINE: UIC by 13 1/2
01/15/05: UIC 74, Cleveland State 57 @ UIC
02/12/05: UIC 73, Cleveland State 66 @ Cleveland
UIC lost it’s last game (which might have given them the #3 seed), lost 3 of it’s last 5, is the Georgia Tech of the Horizon League (really needs to win it’s confrence tournament to salvage what seemed like a very promising season), and I still give them the win. Cleveland’s coming in with 5 straight losses and only close in one of ’em, so this would be a big upset.
All these lines are all kinda of nuts, especially the last two, which is why they’re there. Bet the underdog.
Game 4: #3 Detroit (12-15, 9-7) vs winner of game #1 (Butler) @ UWM on Friday
01/15/05: Detroit 72 – Butler 59 @ Detroit
02/12/05: Butler 65 – Detroit 50 @ Butler
Butler didn’t as much get hot to win the 3 seed bye as much as they finished 500 and everything fell their way. The last matchup here wasn’t too long ago, and it didn’t go too well for the Titans. I’ll go with the Butler upset.
Game 5: winner of game 2 (Loyola-Chicago) vs winner of game 3 (UIC) @ UWM on Friday
01/06/05: UIC 64 – LUC 58 @ Gentile
02/17/05: LUC 91 – UIC 85 @ Pavallion
How is this game not going to be televised? I will lose faith in all of the local Chicago media if Comcast or FSC or even freaking WTTW doesn’t send up a camera crew and David Kaplan to cover the game. It’s UIC vs LOYOLA in the tournament! C’mon.
I don’t believe I can unbiasedly pick the winner of this matchup. But I can convince myself my biased pick may just be right. It all depends on the team that’s been playing in the Ramblers uniforms keeps showing up for another week.
Game 6: UW-Green Bay (17-10, 10-6) vs winner of Game 4 (Butler) @ UWM on Saturday
01/08/05: UWGB 57 – Butler 50 @ Butler
01/31/05: Butler 70 – UWGB 47 @ UWGB
I have this impression UWGB is a mirage. They’ve beat UWM, but then they’ve also gotten utterly stomped by Loyola twice, lost 4 out of their last 5, and they’ve gotten beat by Butler at home. While having to play 2 games, including the previous night the night, is going to take it’s toll, this seems like an upset no matter who’s facing UWGB. (Which school did I go to?)
Game 7: winner of Game 5 (Loyola-Chicago) @ UWM (22-15, 14-2) on Saturday
01/08/05: UWM 73 – Loyola-Chicago 56 @ Loyola
02/10/05: UWM 74 – Loyola-Chicago 67 @ UWM
UWM sure has played a ton of games this season. Oh, would I like to pick the upset here. They have looked a lot better…but I can’t get their fold in the 02/10 game out of my mind. UWM hasn’t lost this month, only twice this year, and got a road trip to Honolulu in the mix. My heart wants to pick Loyola here, but my head says UWM is too good.
Game 8: winner of Game 6 (UWM) vs winner of Game 7 (Butler) on Tuesday
01/06/05: UWM 71 – Butler 68 (OT) @ Butler
02/16/05: UWM 64 – Butler 53 @ UWM
I’m personally looking forward to the five hundred “looks like yet another good Butler team!” comments. The whole point of this wacky format is to make it incredibly imporable for a team do what Butler is trying to do here; win 4 road games to upset a team with NCAA possiblities. And I thikn they’re going to be succesful once again.
so we’ve got…
2 UWGreenBay- |2 UWGreenBay- BYE---------- | |2 UWGreenBay- BYE---------- | | |BYE---------- | BYE---------- | Saturday |7 Butler----- 3 Detroit---- | | |3 Detroit---- | | BYE---------- | | | Friday |7 Butler----- | 7 Butler----- | | Tuesday |7 Butler----- | 6 Wright St-- | Tuesday |1 UWM 8 Youngstown- | Tuesday |4 Loyola Chi- | 4 Loyola Chi- | | Friday |4 Loyola Chi- | 8 Cleveland-- | | | Tuesday |5 UIC-------- | | 5 UIC-------- | | Saturday |1 UWM-------- 2 UWM-------- | |2 UWM-------- | BYE---------- | | |1 UWM-------- BYE---------- | |BYE---------- BYE----------
Hope I’m partly wrong. Too bad I didn’t spell check.