(ie: the last real news till Veteran’s Committee Day or shocking personel move)
– Kerry’s the Opening Day starter. Same as last year. While being the #1 starter is overhyped, it’s of slight importance to him, because it may mean another start for a guy who’s just starting his next contract run. Kerry needs 400 IP in the next two years to vest his 2007 option.
Kerry’s innings per year:
98 166 IP
99 000 IP
00 137 IP
01 174 IP
02 213 IP
03 211 IP
03 140 IP
As you can see, he’s only pulled off 400 IP in two years once. He’s got to get back to an injury free status for tow complete years to pull it off.
– Corey’s the leadoff man. Do you think they actually write the “Corey’s learning the little things it takes to be a compentent leadoff man this Spring Training”, or they just have a form and fill in the blanks?
I’m taking May 5th as the day Todd ends up there instead.
– Dubios and Hollandsworth are your LF combo. Dusty even acted like there’s a chance he’d play Dubios more than once a week!
BPro’s PECOTA numbers went up – today? I guess, they stopped e-mail me their newsletter at some point and I’m missing thing. What’s intersting, and probably not something worth holding them to, is Dubios’ predicted VORP was about the same as Alou’s.
Which isn’t saying much, becuase both were down from Alou’s 51.5 this past year.
(My subscription ends in a few days – I think I’m renewing just because I need idle work reading material – but I think ought to give money to people who aren’t asking for it first.)
Wish the numbers were freely distrubted, just because I’d like to walk thru the major changes from last year’s 2004 and figure out which side is better
2004 Alou + A-Gone + Ordonez + Neifi + Nomar vs 2005 Nomar + 80% Todd + 20% Dubios
(I’d do it just for myself, but it’s not as fun if I can’t talk about the results.)
I think, because Nomar was here at the end, we don’t take into account how much of an increase having him here all year will make – we were getting negative results for quite some time there, and a marginally all-star will be a huge increase.
And still, I fear the formula’s better for 2003.
Anyway, getting back to Jason – like for any Dusty rookie, it’s imperative he have a hot Catcus League season, or he’s going to be buried on the bench.
What the Cubs really need isn’t Magglio Ordonez – it’s a Time Machine to go back to 1988 and pluck out Ricky Henderson.
– There’s orginizational discord about the closer. Jim Hendry and others seems to think Ryan Dempster is going into camp as the Guy, but Dusty’s pretty set on giving LaTroy another shot.
I think that’s a lot to do with it – Dusty feels he’ll lose LaTroy if he has to start another season thinking about the last, and maybe you can’t trust him as the second guy, while you can perhaps with Ryan.
It’s a debate which probably doesn’t miss a lot – there’s no reason to think either is Eric Gange (no matter what comparisions the press can work up), but no one’s going to be as bad over the course of the season as Hawkins was the last week. They’re not going to be top of the line guys, but they’re going to be competent, and that’s all we really can expect.
No talk about Joe is probably a bad sign.
– Ryan Dempster is a funny guy. And yay for that.
– Rusch doesn’t automatically have the 5th starter locked…which is probably just an escape clause if the bullpen seems to have no good left handed specialist and the young starters win Dusty’s affections. Not happening.
Speaking of bullpen lefties, Phil Rogers on WGN Radio, before the convention, mentioned that Will Ohman is expected to be on the team at this point. A bit of a surprise, but he did well in winter ball.
– Lots of people talked things about Sammy Sosa, and nothing much new was said. There will be rumors about a deal till September 1st, but one looks unlikely. There will be a meeting between now and Spring Training between Sammy and members of the Cubs, and there probable will be a team meeting about the whole situation the first day of the season.
Which means more people talking and nothing really is resolved. This story will get cycled around, with the same body and nothing added or learned, as the Big Cubs Story until about the third time Sosa comes to Chicago as a member of another team, and we’re on pace for that to happen sometime in 2007. Wheeeee.
I’m guessing, in one of those meetings, Sammy will make a non-apology apology, pay (some of) his fine and give up his ‘C’ in an act of contrition. Someone will be named as Captain in his place, but not until he’s gone. Sammy won’t talk to the media much, except an occasional “I’m ticked about the fans booing me and would be happy to play [insert city here]” angry mumble. And nothing much changes. Wheeeeeeeeeeee.