the big move

Let’s talk about the Big Move: the Cubs signing LF/1B/RF Daryle Ward to play the role of John Mabry.

It’s a one year deal and it does perfectly fill the need. He’s the backup first baseman, he’s the left handed power hitter off the bench, and it’s only $1.05mil, so they afford to cut bait with him if he doesn’t work out. Plus, he’ll be the go to go after Jacque gets his wish to leave and Dusty does another “I’m not saying Cub fans are racist, but, you know, look at my mail” interview with USA Today. That’ll be fun. (I guess this means the Cubs don’t have to pick up Cliff Floyd!)

The downside is Daryle Ward is not very good. (Actually, the bigger downside is how many times I’m going to spell “Daryle” incorrectly in the next year, but I guess on the filed performance matters a little.) People taking a cursory look at his AVG from last year – 308 – might miss the point that he’s not actually that good and just had some luck in a low amount of at bats. Ward’s a career 262 AVG with 314 OBP (fits in with the team) and 445 SLG, all of which is a bit subpar for a corner guy.

The hope here is that the Nationals figured out something last year (!) which can be reproduced with some success this. Heck, we’re hoping the same thing with Soriano, might as well count on it for the bench too. Looking at Ward’s Career Stats, he struggled noticeable in years where he was an every day regular. The Nationals used him as a bench guy, and very carefully at that. Of the 98 games he played in between Atlanta and Washington, he came in as a pinch hitter in 73 of them for a awesome 350/438/633 line. And it worked because he almost always faced righties:

vs L: 19 PA: 059/158/059 (1 single and 2 BB)
vs R: 126 PA: 345/412/619

The gameplan for him is pretty simple: use Daryle Ward as deterrent for bringing in the tough righty to face Murton or other RHB down in the order, and absolutely do not let him face lefties.

Ward had a few years – 2000 most obviously – where he was just trying to hit home runs or nothing at all. Hopefully he won’t get that idea at Wrigley. Decent defensive stats, though I’d suspect the range isn’t there, and it’s tough to tell with his few innings of work.

I have tremendously less to say about Ted Lilly. He’ll be a guy who hopefully pitches 180+ innings per year with just okay results, and will be repeatedly killed for taking the contract which was offered him. They’ll try to run him out of town multiple times. Fun will be had by all. If you could predict which pitchers of this free agent class will actually be worth the money, don’t look for an MLB job, just go straight to Vegas. I’m thinking Lilly will be better than Meche and Padilla (both of which I’m thrilled the Cubs didn’t sign), and trying to convince myself he’ll even beat Schmidt by the end of their deals, but who knows with pitchers.

So, now…

CA Barrett
1B Lee
2B DeRosa
SS Cesar
3B A-Ram
LF Murton
CF ?????? (no Jacque, no clear idea of a replacement unless they sign Lofton)
RF Soriano

CA Blanco
1B Ward
UT Theroit
OF Pagan
3B Moore (taking Bynum’s spot till a better idea appears)

SP Zambrano
SP Hill
SP Lilly
SP Miller (definite there unless Prior takes his spot)
SP Marshall (?)

RP Wood
RP Wuertz (?)
RP Cotts (though figure he’ll still get a chance to start if they don’t anything there)
RP Howry
RP Eyre
CL Dempester

XP Prior or Novoa or Marmol or Guzman or Ohman or Wuertz
or
XH Cedeno or Coats (if Theroit can’t make it as backup CF – or if Theroit ends up starting CF!)

LIMBO: Jacque Jones

They’ve got to unscramble that bullpen mess. I mean, the Iowa Cubs will have the best closing crew in the pen, but they’re wasting some good raw material there.