extraneous thoughts

Because why write three posts when you can make it one? Things get longer once I start writing them.

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We’ve been pretty much spared a blizzard this week, maybe by all of two degrees. Lots of precipitation, but the thermostat has been hanging around the 34 (1!) degree, and so things haven’t gone completely off the rails. Drove around a bit on Wednesday during some of the worst of it, and was so thankful for the degrees. Roads have been surprisingly great. (Parking lots, not so much – hauled a heavy computer over an inch of ice, barely manged not to have an expensive crash.)

The storms left a lot of ice behind – until I got LastFM running again, the background noise in my house was ice chunks crashing off the side of my roof and hitting the ground – but ice storms make for the neatest of all frozen scenery.

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I’m totally okay with the Cubs not getting Matt Capps. It was going to have to be a two year deal, and that idea doesn’t thrill me for marginal relievers.

Between this, and wanting to pick the new centerfielder based on the length of his contract more than his ability, I think I’ve subconsciously realized:

a) it helps the next GM to repair things if Hendry doesn’t give out multiyear deals this year (and the next GM is coming on next year)
b) I don’t think this team is going to be very good, or at least not two marginal players from being very good.

The Pirates, the Astros and the Reds are going to be no different then the last few years. One of them will make a first half run, but none of them will be competitive by the end. The Brewers and the Cardinals will be good as long as injuries don’t cripple them, and they can be great if they get a few guys to play above expectations (and it’s the same people as always – the starting pitching for the Brewers and the non-Pujlos hitters for the Cardinals.)

The Cubs, as they are and how they’ll probably be, are a good team, but there’s not a lot of hope for a very good team. There are bounce back candidates (Soriano), but the team is starting from a worse position then last year, and there’s not much left that’ll change that.

86, 87 wins seems like the best possible number the 2010 team could pull off, which has been enough for the NL Central some years and may be for next year. The best possible win number for the Cardinals and the Brewers seem well into the 90s. I’m usually not so quick to pick against this team, but I really don’t feel strong about it.

I need to do the 25 starting roster again and figure this out a bit more quantifiably, but I’ve been waiting for the Byrd deal to get done. That it hasn’t means there’s still some serious salary issue, but I’m not sure who else is in the market for Byrd at this point.

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Of my four fantasy football leagues, I’m in the finals of one, in the consolation bracket of another, and in two other semifinals. It’s the first one, the one with the live draft and occasionally live other team members that I’ve been focused on this week.

Week 16 Starting Lineup, at the moment

QB Brady
RB Chris Johnson
RB Jaamal Charles
WR Greg Jennings
WR Heinz Ward (over Josh Morgan – Reggie Wayne is the normal starter)
// Marion Barber (over J. Snelling, M. Bush)
TE JerMichael Finley (over Fred Davis)
KI Hartley
TM Cardinals vs STL

Really undecided about that WR2 and Slash spots. Barber has been tremendously disappointing, but I guess it makes more sense to go down with him then an Oakland Raider.

I’m up against

QB Romo
RB MJD
RB Jerome Harrison
WR Welker
WR Calvin Johnson
// Vincent Jackson
TE Kellen Winslow
KI Akers
TM Bengals vs KC

I think Harrison won’t come close to last week, but I tried picking up him up to (lost on the waiver claim.) His other RBs are Turner (out) and Moreno, so it makes sense.

Feels like he’s going to beat me easily on the WRs and Slash and the RBs are closer than I’d like. My friends have been nice enough to tell me that I’ll win this, but I’m not feeling that confident. Figure to have a good idea on how this is going after tonight’s game.