So, Zito gets to say in the same Metro area and gets a truckload of cash from her to infinity. Works out well for him. Works out bad for the Cubs.
FA Age 2006 ERA+ 2006 K/IP Z(ito) 28 116 8.83 Z(ambrano) 26 136 6.14
Zito’s got larger counting stats, but that’s because he’s got those two extra years in the majors, and being two years younger plays much more into Zambrano’s favor. Zito’s real edges are being a lefty starter and having more big game experience. But Z also brings the home run power.
Zito’s getting 7/18. Z seems to be better, and a better bet for the long term – so 7/19? 7/20? (I’m thinking 10/25.) Even with the Cubs expanded payroll, Carlos and Soriano would be 2/5ths to 1/3rd of the entire team budget. That’s going to be a bit crazy.
The one alternative possibility is maybe Carlos is willing to sign a lesser length deal for his next contract. I don’t have any proof or example, but I’m thinking “4 year deal to age 30 + 7 year deal to age 37 > 7 year deal to age 33 + 4 year deal to age 37”, because you’d be getting two career peak deals instead of one. But who knows? It make turn out that he can get another 7 year deal at 33 if he’s still awesome, and he’s gotta be awesome.
The other thing is, July 31st, 2008, there’s going to an amazingly big trade, because I can’t imagine the Twins being able to resign Santana when his current contract runs out.