eleven

LAD +0.5 11 69.56 Alvarez v SDP Wells
SFG  0.0 10 49.96 Schmidt v HOU Backe
CHC -0.5 11 69.66 Maddux @ PIT Figueroa
HOU -3.0 10  5.75 Backe @ SFG Schmidt
SDP -4.0 10  5.03 Wells v LAD Alvarez

SOSA. CARLOS. Though I wonder if they can bring up this stat comparison in arbitration

W-L  ERA   IP  ER
v PIT    5-0 1.02  35.1  4
v rest  10-8 2.99 162.1 54

You’re supposed to beat up on the really bad teams, so I’ve got no problem with that. What’s actually neater is he’s 3-0 with a 0.92 ERA in September. That’s certainly workable.

To feel really safe here, the Cubs would need to get ahead of both the Dodgers and Giants (and stay ahead of the order teams, duh), to avoid the NL West loser to back into a tie, though it may not be exactly necessary. But because the Dodgers and Giants will play next, this looks awful good for the Cubs, who have now actually passed up the Dodgers in probability of moving on.

Playing with the scenarios, the common them seems to be this: if the top 3 stay even after today, the Cubs will be At Least Tied for the Wild Card by winning 2 out of 3 versus the Mets, no matter who wins what games. The best Dodgers/Giants scenarios for the Cubs are sweeps either way; the losing team sinks like a rock towards the trailing teams, and the winning team is irrelevant to the Wild Card.

tCR expands on this idea: the Cubs can be beat for the Wildcard if they win 94 games, so that’s a 9-2 record. Which is nice, but I don’t think anyone’s actually getting to 94 wins; the key is the team that comes out worst of the LAD/SFG series will have taken at least 3 losses, so if the Cubs have a theoretical cushion at this point.

Today is make or break for the Houston Astros; lose, and they’re 4 out with no games left against the teams ahead of them, needing a lot of help and two teams to slump.

San Diego’s better off, because they’ve got the Giants Tue/Wed/Thu next week, and just games against the Diamondbacks after today. Obviously, a sweep of that series is likely necessary, but they’ll be moving up on someone as long as they can take care of business against the DBacks.

This is try #2 for Maddux’s 15th win. He’ll going to cross the 200 IP barrier today (needs 4 1/3). IP’s are important for his contract; the third year (@ $9 mil) kicks in if he gets 400 IP between this year and next. He’s going to get the half he needs this year and a touch more, but this total also seems to indicate he won’t make the big total if he’d even have a stint on the DL next year; missing 3 starts might be too much to overcome to get the 190~ innings he’ll need then.

I can’t believe Glendon is starting in place of Clement tomorrow. I don’t think I disagree, it’s just an incredible move. Maybe I’ll talk about that tomorrow.

I am very thankful Dusty did not follow thru on his threat to close with Kyle last night.